A betting odds calculator takes the odds and stake of a particular bet and figures out the payout automatically. Thus, in order to understand how to use a betting odds calculator, we must first understand the different types of betting odds. There are three common NFL betting lines: the side, total and moneyline. Side: The side refers to the point spread. While the odds can fluctuate, most sides are -110, meaning you have to bet $110.
Football brings in more betting handle than any other sport in the US. The NFL regular season presents a schedule of betting opportunities that make the league a unique venture for sports bettors.
Betting Calculator Before making any bet, it helps to know what you're risking for the expected payout. Feb 04, 2021 The NFL Spread Calculator is can offer spread bettors some insight when deciding if, and how many points to buy on the alternate line. This calculator uses over a decades worth of betting data to. Explore basic betting styles with our FREE calculator. Play with money odds, over/under & point spread bets to learn more, & how to use them to your favor.
Starting with the season's opening weekend, the NFL plays through a 17-week regular-season schedule each year. Each team plays 16 games with one bye week, and every weekend offers anywhere from 12-16 games open for betting.
The NFL season always brings plenty of surprises, and a team that might seem like a great pick early in the season often ends up as a weekly underdog later in the year.
Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator
| Open | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun (2/7) @ 6:30pm ET | KCChiefs | -141 | -156 | -164 | -161 | -154 | -154 | -161 |
| TBBuccaneers | +120 | +136 | +140 | +140 | +135 | +135 | +135 | |
| Sun (2/7) @ 6:30pm ET | KCChiefs | -3.5+100 | -3.0-110 | -3.0-110 | -3.0-110 | -3.0-110 | -3.0-108 | -3.0-110 |
| TBBuccaneers | 3.5-120 | 3.0-110 | 3.0-110 | 3.0-110 | 3.0-110 | 3.0-108 | 3.0-110 | |
| Sun (2/7) @ 6:30pm ET | KCChiefs | o57.5-110 | o55.5-110 | o55.5-110 | o55.5-110 | o55.5-110 | o55.5-108 | o55.5-110 |
| TBBuccaneers | u57.5-110 | u55.5-110 | u55.5-110 | u55.5-110 | u55.5-110 | u55.5-108 | u55.5-110 |
How NFL Regular Season Odds Are Calculated
The most popular ways to bet on the NFL include moneyline, point spread, and totals betting. Online sportsbooks offer several other ways to bet on NFL games, but it's important to understand the way fundamental football betting works.
For example, here's a look at the odds on the Week 13 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers from the 2020 NFL regular season. The lines on that game from DraftKings Sportsbook looked like this right before kickoff:
| Point Spread | Totals | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +1.5 (-110) | Over 48 (-110) | +106 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -1.5 (-110) | Under 48 (-110) | -121 |
Point Spread
The point spread listed for an NFL game adds points to the underdog's final score, or subtracts from the favorite's final point total.
In the example above, the 49ers stand as a 1.5-point favorite over the Bills. For betting purposes, 1.5 points will be added to Buffalo's score at the end of the game.
If San Francisco wins 31-30, for example, Bills bettors would win the wager. Buffalo would finish with 31.5 points to the 49ers 31 points.
Totals
Totals bets simply task the bettor with picking whether the final score will end up under or over the listed point total. For instance, the 31-30 San Francisco win we've talked about above would result in a win for Over 48 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Moneyline
Moneyline bets represent a straight-up wager on what team will win the game, with no point spread involved. Winning bets on the underdog pay off at better odds than the favorite, and a big NFL upset can lead to a big payout on the underdog.
Calculating American Odds
Note that all of the lines on the Bills-49ers games offer payout odds listed in American Odds. The -110 seen on both sides of the points spread and totals line represents a bet that pays -110 American Odds.
To calculate '-' American Odds, divide 100 by the odds number (without the minus sign) and multiply that quotient by the amount wagered.
For example, a $50 bet that pays -110 odds would calculate as (100/110)*$50, which converts to (.909*$50) and then to $45.45. A $50 winning bet on -110 odds would return $95.45 total to the bettor ($45.45 profit plus the original $50 bet).
Calculating '+' odds, like the +106 payout on the Bills moneyline bet, involves a slightly different formula. '+' payouts are calculated by dividing the odds number by 100, then multiplying by the amount wagered to determine the profit.
A $50 bet on the +106 line for Buffalo would solve as (110/100)*$50, which calculates to (1.1*$50) and then to $55.
A $50 winning wager at +106 odds would return $105 total to the bettor ($55 profit plus the original $50 bet).
What Causes Point Spread And Moneyline Odds To Change During The Week?
Suppose the Bills-49ers game showed the 49ers as a -4 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook a week before the game, but by game day the line showed the -1.5 point spread listed above.
The lines on an NFL game can change as the week goes on, sometimes shifting dramatically. Changes can occur right up until kickoff.
If a sportsbook gets too many bets on one side of a line, the book stands to lose big if that side wins. To combat this, sportsbooks will shift the point spread and moneyline odds one way or another, in an effort to get the right amount of money (from the sportsbook's money-making perspective) on each side of the game.
What Is An NFL Odds Calculator?
The Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator provides an invaluable tool for researching the lines on each NFL game. We update the lines each week for all NFL regular season games and compare the odds available at each of the top online sportsbooks in the US.
The NFL Odds Calculator presents a comprehensive menu of point spread, moneyline, and totals bets for every week of the NFL season.
How To Use An NFL Odds Calculator
The toggle menu at the top left of the Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator allows you to look at spreads, moneyline, and totals lines for all games in the upcoming week of the NFL season.
The 'open' column shows the odds on the game at the beginning of the week. You can compare that to the various lines offered by each sportsbook on the right, allowing you to evaluate which way the lines have moved throughout the week.
The best odds on a chosen game are highlighted in yellow, displaying the sportsbook offering the best value on a given bet.
With many states offering multiple different online sportsbooks, research and line shopping are essential aspects of a winning betting strategy. The Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator puts all of the research you need on one page.
Check back with the Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator every week to see the latest lines at the top sportsbooks in the US.
Where Can I Bet On the NFL Regular Season And Playoffs?
DraftKings Sportsbook
Football bettors in nine US states can legally wager on the NFL with DraftKings Sportsbook. One of the most popular sports betting platforms in the nation, DraftKings Sportsbook offers its services in the following states:
- New Jersey
- Pennsylvania
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Colorado
- West Virginia
- Tennessee
- New Hampshire
Michigan and Virginia will likely join this list sometime in early 2021. DraftKings offers several different ways to bet on the NFL each week.
Moneyline, point spread, parlays, totals, and player prop bets represent just some of the ways to bet on NFL games at DraftKings Sportsbook. Live in-game betting, which features rapidly changing lines as the game progresses, opens up even more ways to bet on the NFL.
FanDuel Sportsbook
Another of the most popular sports betting brands in the US, FanDuel Sportsbook presents a comprehensive menu of betting options on the NFL season.
FanDuel Sportsbook consistently offers some of the most competitive weekly point spread, moneyline, and totals odds on the NFL. In-game betting options include live player props, with odds that change multiple times as a game plays on.
FanDuel Sportsbook legally operates in these states, with Michigan and Virginia coming soon:
- New Jersey
- Pennsylvania
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Colorado
- West Virginia
- Tennessee
BetMGM Sportsbook
The BetMGM online sportsbook operates as the mobile sports brand offered by MGM Resorts. BetMGM offers legal online sports betting in the following states:
- New Jersey
- Nevada
- Indiana
- Colorado
- West Virginia
- Tennessee
Bettors of all experience levels would do well to include BetMGM among their options for betting on the NFL each week. The mobile sportsbook offering from BetMGM includes a robust number of ways to bet each week.
NFL Odds Calculator FAQ
Yes, as long as it's done from a state-regulated, legal sportsbook. Bonus.com offers up-to-date information on which states have legal sports betting, and what sportsbooks are live in those states.
Some states offer both online and retail sports betting, while others are restricted to just land-based sportsbooks.
Yes. The Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator is 100% legal, and you can rest assured that sharp bettors across the country are using a tool like this every time they bet.
If you live in a state with several online sportsbooks to choose from, you're missing out on value and optimized betting strategy if you're not using an odds calculator.
Spreads, totals, and moneyline. The Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator allows you to toggle among all three of the most popular ways to bet on NFL games.
The latest lines for all three of these ways to bet are on display for the top sportsbooks in the US when you use the Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator.
The Bonus.com NFL Odds Calculator highlights the best odds for each game in yellow. In most cases, more than one of the sportsbooks listed on the calculator will offer the best odds on a game.
The lines can shift dramatically day-to-day, however, so be sure to check back daily for the updated betting information.
Some states offer more online sports betting brands than others, and some states don't allow any kind of legal sports betting.
Check out the Bonus.com guide to online sports betting for a comprehensive outline of what states allow legal sports betting, and which sportsbooks operate in each.
While the NFL point spread is the most popular type of bet in the
United States, most that bet this proposition are unfamiliar with how
to calculate the point spread odds themselves, and this article aims to
change that.
Because of the way football is scored, some point spreads are
more important than others. As such, it is worth the time to read the
article on Key NFL Point Spreads before continuing.
The Team's Winning Percentage is Everything
Before you can calculate point spread odds you must have an idea as to
how often the teams playing in the game are going to win. This is the
most crucial part to calculating fair point spread odds, as the actual
margin of victory in a game is a chance event. The more often a team
wins the game the more likely they are to win by a larger margin of
victory. To calculate how often you can expect at team to win, checkout
Smart Pro Football Handicapping.
Once you know a team's probability of winning a given game, you can
then calculate the probability of the team covering a specific point
spread.
To calculate these point spread odds you must know the conditional probability distribution for a team winning by a specific number of points given that we already know they have won
the game. This distribution for the average NFL game is referred to as
the overall margin of victory distribution and is shown below.
Overall Margin of Victory Distribution
For an average NFL game the winning team's margin of victory will follow the following probability distribution:
2468101214161820
| Margin of Victory | Exactly | Less Than | Greater Than | Less Than or Equal To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.46% | 0.00% | 94.60% | 3.46% |
| 2.89% | 3.46% | 90.57% | 6.85% | |
| 3 | 14.51% | 6.85% | 73.69% | 22.29% |
| 3.39% | 22.29% | 69.31% | 26.45% | |
| 5 | 2.64% | 26.45% | 65.81% | 29.82% |
| 4.18% | 29.82% | 60.58% | 34.89% | |
| 7 | 8.08% | 34.89% | 51.13% | 44.19% |
| 2.57% | 44.19% | 47.78% | 47.54% | |
| 9 | 1.14% | 47.54% | 46.10% | 49.21% |
| 5.12% | 49.21% | 39.94% | 55.43% | |
| 11 | 2.19% | 55.43% | 37.06% | 58.36% |
| 1.01% | 58.36% | 35.56% | 59.90% | |
| 13 | 2.64% | 59.90% | 32.17% | 63.38% |
| 3.68% | 63.38% | 27.66% | 68.05% | |
| 15 | 0.85% | 68.05% | 26.37% | 69.39% |
| 1.40% | 69.39% | 24.43% | 71.43% | |
| 17 | 2.93% | 71.43% | 20.78% | 75.29% |
| 1.61% | 75.29% | 18.62% | 77.59% | |
| 19 | 0.75% | 77.59% | 17.46% | 78.83% |
| 1.40% | 78.83% | 15.54% | 80.90% | |
| 21 | 2.02% | 80.90% | 12.95% | 83.74% |
To account for a margin of error, the data in the table above are
the lower limits of a one-sided 99% confidence interval based on actual
results for NFL regular season games from the 1997-2006 seasons.
A Quick Word Regarding Blowouts
A common mistake NFL point spread bettors make is betting on the blowout.
Based on the data in the table above you can see that at least
27.66% of all NFL games will end with a margin of victory of 15 points
or higher. It's easy to see why bettors bet for the blowout, as that's
roughly 1 out of every 4 games!
Bettors hate to see their team get crushed, but like it or
not, at least 12.95% of all games will have the winning team do so by
22 or more points (almost 1 out of every 8 games).
Don't let these probabilities affect you psychologically when
looking over a given Sunday's results. Your bankroll will thank you for
it.
The Home and Away Difference
Only a very small percentage of NFL games are played at a
neutral site, so it is important to take into account the difference
between winning at home and winning on the road when calculating point
spread odds.
Home Margin of Victory Distribution
2468101214161820
| Margin of Victory | Exactly | Less Than | Greater Than | Less Than or Equal To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 94.58% | 2.94% |
| 2.36% | 2.94% | 90.84% | 5.90% | |
| 3 | 13.24% | 5.90% | 74.55% | 20.27% |
| 2.82% | 20.27% | 70.51% | 24.03% | |
| 5 | 2.36% | 24.03% | 67.06% | 27.29% |
| 3.06% | 27.29% | 62.78% | 31.37% | |
| 7 | 7.70% | 31.37% | 53.28% | 40.62% |
| 2.24% | 40.62% | 50.04% | 43.81% | |
| 9 | 0.97% | 43.81% | 48.39% | 45.45% |
| 4.74% | 45.45% | 42.31% | 51.56% | |
| 11 | 2.07% | 51.56% | 39.33% | 54.59% |
| 0.92% | 54.59% | 37.77% | 56.18% | |
| 13 | 2.47% | 56.18% | 34.33% | 59.72% |
| 3.29% | 59.72% | 29.96% | 64.25% | |
| 15 | 0.47% | 64.25% | 29.03% | 65.23% |
| 1.29% | 65.23% | 27.02% | 67.34% | |
| 17 | 3.06% | 67.34% | 22.98% | 71.64% |
| 1.51% | 71.64% | 20.73% | 74.05% | |
| 19 | 0.76% | 74.05% | 19.42% | 75.48% |
| 1.40% | 75.48% | 17.33% | 77.76% | |
| 21 | 1.57% | 77.76% | 15.05% | 80.28% |
Away Margin of Victory Distribution
2468101214161820
| Margin of Victory | Exactly | Less Than | Greater Than | Less Than or Equal To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.38% | 0.00% | 93.45% | 3.38% |
| 2.89% | 3.38% | 88.74% | 7.05% | |
| 3 | 14.68% | 7.05% | 70.38% | 23.19% |
| 3.38% | 23.19% | 65.45% | 27.80% | |
| 5 | 2.34% | 27.80% | 61.83% | 31.23% |
| 4.85% | 31.23% | 55.23% | 37.60% | |
| 7 | 7.39% | 37.60% | 45.84% | 46.88% |
| 2.34% | 46.88% | 42.32% | 50.42% | |
| 9 | 0.92% | 50.42% | 40.62% | 52.15% |
| 4.69% | 52.15% | 34.41% | 58.53% | |
| 11 | 1.73% | 58.53% | 31.70% | 61.35% |
| 0.72% | 61.35% | 30.30% | 62.81% | |
| 13 | 2.19% | 62.81% | 27.06% | 66.24% |
| 3.38% | 66.24% | 22.46% | 71.17% | |
| 15 | 0.99% | 71.17% | 20.73% | 73.06% |
| 1.06% | 73.06% | 18.91% | 75.06% | |
| 17 | 2.03% | 75.06% | 15.93% | 78.37% |
| 1.21% | 78.37% | 13.96% | 80.60% | |
| 19 | 0.40% | 80.60% | 13.07% | 81.61% |
| 0.92% | 81.61% | 11.48% | 83.45% | |
| 21 | 2.03% | 83.45% | 8.60% | 86.86% |
The important thing to remember about the difference between
winning at home versus winning on the road is that teams that win at
home are more likely to win by a larger margin than teams that win on
the road.
Calculating the Odds
With winning probabilities and margin of victory distributions in hand you can now calculate point spread odds.
Below are a couple of examples.
Example #1: You approximate the true winning percentage for a
team playing at home to be 58%, and the listed point spread is home
team -3 points. What are the fair odds for the home team covering -3
points and the away team covering +3 points?
Probability of home team covering -3 points:
Using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the
home team wins they will do so by more than 3 points at least 74.55% of
the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the
time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as
follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that
the home team will win by more than 3 points. This result is then
divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3
points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final
probability of the home team covering -3 points is 46.84%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +113.
Probability of away team covering +3 points:
Again, using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the
home team wins they will do so by less than 3 points at least 5.90% of
the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the
time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as
follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that
the home team will win by 2 points or less combined with the
probability that the away team will win outright. This result is then
divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3
points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final
probability of the away team covering +3 points is 49.20%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +103.
It should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not
sum to 100%. The 'left over' 3.96% (100% - 46.84% - 49.20% = 3.96%) is
due to the margin of error. Because we're using historical data, we
can't be 100% sure of the exact probabilities.
Example #2: You approximate the true winning percentage for a
team playing on the road to be 75%, and the listed point spread is away
team -4.5 points. What are the fair odds for the away team covering
-4.5 points and the home team covering +4.5 points?
Probability of away team covering -4.5 points:
Using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the
away team wins they will do so by more than 4 points at least 65.45% of
the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds
as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the away team covering -4.5 points is 49.09%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +104.
Probability of home team covering +4.5 points:
Again, using the away team margin of victory distribution, when
the away team wins they will do so by less than or equal to 4 points at
least 27.80% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair
point spread odds as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the home team covering +4.5 points is 45.85%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +118.
Calculating the Odds
With winning probabilities and margin of victory distributions in hand you can now calculate point spread odds.
Below are a couple of examples.
Example #1: You approximate the true winning percentage for a
team playing at home to be 58%, and the listed point spread is home
team -3 points. What are the fair odds for the home team covering -3
points and the away team covering +3 points?
Probability of home team covering -3 points:
Using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the
home team wins they will do so by more than 3 points at least 74.55% of
the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the
time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as
follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that
the home team will win by more than 3 points. This result is then
divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3
points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final
probability of the home team covering -3 points is 46.84%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +113.
Probability of away team covering +3 points:
Again, using the home team margin of victory distribution, when the
home team wins they will do so by less than 3 points at least 5.90% of
the time, and they will win by exactly 3 points at least 13.24% of the
time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds as
follows:
The top portion of this calculation calculates the probability that
the home team will win by 2 points or less combined with the
probability that the away team will win outright. This result is then
divided by the probability that the home team does not win by exactly 3
points, as ties do not count as a win or a loss. As such, the final
probability of the away team covering +3 points is 49.20%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +103.
It should now be obvious that the probabilities calculated above do not
sum to 100%. The 'left over' 3.96% (100% - 46.84% - 49.20% = 3.96%) is
due to the margin of error. Because we're using historical data, we
can't be 100% sure of the exact probabilities.
Example #2: You approximate the true winning percentage for a
team playing on the road to be 75%, and the listed point spread is away
team -4.5 points. What are the fair odds for the away team covering
-4.5 points and the home team covering +4.5 points?
Probability of away team covering -4.5 points:
Using the away team margin of victory distribution, when the
away team wins they will do so by more than 4 points at least 65.45% of
the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair point spread odds
as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the away team covering -4.5 points is 49.09%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +104.
Probability of home team covering +4.5 points:
Again, using the away team margin of victory distribution, when
the away team wins they will do so by less than or equal to 4 points at
least 27.80% of the time. You can use this data to calculate the fair
point spread odds as follows:
As this calculation shows, the probability of the home team covering +4.5 points is 45.85%. Using a money line converter, this equates to fair odds of +118.
As with the first example, it should now be obvious that the
probabilities calculated above do not sum to 100%. Again, the 'left
over' 5.06% (100% - 49.09% - 45.85% = 5.06%) is due to the margin of
error.
Summary
Using the data and calculations provided in this article you
should now be able to calculate point spread odds for any National
Nfl Betting Lines
Football League game.